Index Methodology
How the WW3 Risk Index score is calculated, calibrated, and updated in real time.
What We Measure
The WW3 Risk Index measures the probability of a direct military conflict between at least two major nuclear powers — specifically the United States, Russia, and China — escalating to or constituting a World War 3 scenario. It does not measure the severity of any ongoing regional war.
Regional wars (e.g. Russia–Ukraine, Israel–Iran) are factored in only to the degree they risk drawing major nuclear powers into direct confrontation.
Score Composition
Each refresh cycle the index is computed in two steps: first a structural baseline is established from standing geopolitical conditions, then each incoming headline applies a micro-delta to that baseline.
The baseline is updated with each model analysis based on the model's assessment of the standing geopolitical situation, separate from individual news events.
Per-Article Delta Scale
Each headline receives a float delta. The scale is intentionally conservative — most real-world events produce small changes. Large deltas are reserved for events that materially alter the probability of direct nuclear-power confrontation.
| Delta | Event Class |
|---|---|
| ±0.1 | Routine — statement, sanction, minor skirmish |
| ±0.2 | Significant — notable military movement or breakdown |
| ±0.5 | Major regional — large strike, credible nuclear rhetoric |
| ±1.0 | Proxy escalation — direct casualties involving major-power assets |
| ±2.0 | Near-miss — accidental clash between nuclear-power forces |
| ±5.0 | Direct conflict — first confirmed shots between nuclear powers |
| ±10.0 | War — full-scale attack on nuclear-power territory or nuclear use |
Calibration Scale
The index is calibrated against documented historical crisis moments to prevent score inflation:
| Score | Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 0–10 | LOW | Baseline peacetime. Normal diplomatic tensions. |
| 11–20 | LOW | Elevated rhetoric, sanctions, no active major conflict. |
| 21–35 | ELEVATED | Active proxy wars. Nuclear threats in rhetoric only. |
| 36–50 | ELEVATED | Proxy wars escalating, direct incidents between major powers. |
| 51–65 | HIGH | Direct military clash between major powers. Casualties confirmed. |
| 66–80 | HIGH | Limited direct warfare between nuclear powers. Tactical nuclear alert. |
| 81–95 | CRITICAL | Full-scale war between 2+ nuclear powers. Weapons on alert. |
| 96–100 | CRITICAL | Global nuclear exchange in progress. |
Data Sources
News is aggregated in real time from 24 RSS feeds across major international outlets, wire services, and conflict-focused publishers. Sources are refreshed every 30 seconds. No social media data is used.
AI Analysis
Analysis is performed by GPT-4o-mini acting as a senior geopolitical risk analyst. The model is explicitly instructed to:
- •Establish a structural baseline from standing geopolitical conditions before reading any headlines.
- •Apply micro-float deltas (e.g. +0.1, +0.3) for routine events — not integer jumps.
- •Only assign large deltas (≥2.0) for events that directly involve confirmed military contact between nuclear-power forces.
- •Treat regional proxy wars (Ukraine, Gaza, Iran–Israel) as already priced into the baseline — their headlines adjust the score minimally unless they draw in US/NATO or China directly.
- •Compare current signals against historical benchmarks: Cuba 1962 = ~75, Able Archer 1983 = ~58, Kosovo 1999 = ~38, Ukraine invasion Feb 2022 = ~32.
- •Deduplicate similar headlines — only the first occurrence earns a delta, subsequent similar articles score 0.
- •Round the final score to one decimal place.